Re: [CR]Bianchi/Ducati "Limited Edition" bicycle

(Example: Production Builders:Peugeot:PY-10)

From: <GPVB1@cs.com>
Subject: Re: [CR]Bianchi/Ducati "Limited Edition" bicycle
To: classicrendezvous@bikelist.org
Date: Sat, 16 Nov 2002 12:08:29 EST

Date: Fri, 15 Nov 2002 19:45:18 -0500 From: The Maaslands <TheMaaslands@comcast.net> Subject: I: [CR]Bianchi/Ducati "Limited Edition" bicycle To: Classic Rendezvous <Classicrendezvous@bikelist.org>

Greg wrote:
>The world is filled with things that have been Marketed as "future
>collectables." The vast majority never panned out. You generally can't "make"
>something collectable or desireable. The 1988 BMW M5 (multiple lawsuits were
>filed over that one...), 50th Campy groups, Franklin Mint junque, etc. come
>to mind...... Usually, the only ones that make a killing on these items are
>the original makers (not the dealers/retailers that get stuck with selling
>them at a loss, either).

To which Steven replied:
> I don't believe you should include the 50th anniversary gruppo in this
> description as it has indeed become very collectable. In Italy, the
> wholesale price on the gruppi was about Lit 900,000 back in 1983, with the
> retail price being about Lit 1,300,000. A mint gruppo now sells in Italy
> for
> the Euro equivalent of between Lit 3,000,000 and 4,500,000. Not a bad
> return
> on your money! I came across a few never opened gruppi while in Italy over
> the last 10 days. They were in the hands of dealers who were 'stuck' with
> them. None of the people who has them ever believed they would ever be in a
> situation where they would need to sell them at a loss (unlike the Dura-Ace
> group!)

<snip>

Well, let's see: that group increased in retail value (by your average retail numbers) about 188% over 19 years' time. The inflation rate during that same period was, what, 300% in Italy perhaps? I wouldn't call that "not a bad return on your money." Also, were those "dealer-owned" (read: speculator) groups actually selling, or did they just have asking prices at those levels? How many did you snap up? I'll sell all of my NOS 50th groups for $5000 each in a New Jersey minute if anyone's interested!

I can only comment on my personal experience in my little part of the World. 50th groups were about $1000 wholesale / $1500 retail here when new in 1983, then were closed out at the end for $699 wholesale (much like the Shimano groups - Hmmm...). Recently, I have purchased pristene NOS 50th groups for $1500, including one on eBay. While I think they're a novelty and kind of cool, that certainly isn't a good return on investment over 19 years either, and I would never consider a 50th group to be "an investment." They're just interesting old bike parts.

(BTW, what is the highest price anyone has seen an NOS 50th group *actually* change hands for? Feel free to e-mail me off-list and I'll tabulate the results and report back to the group).

<snip>
>
> For cars, the depreciation curve generally continues for about 20 years
> before appreciation then begins. Anybody who expects to have the value of a
> car appreciate earlier than this is foolish and has simply not looked into
> the market. Having said that, I have personally earned money on the
> long-term ownership of a few classic cars and am almost guaranteed to do
> the
> same on the ones I still own too. I did not buy them to earn money however!
> I bought them for other reasons. I would expect the Ducati/Bianchi bikes to
> have their value go down for the first few years after their production and
> then see them go up. Long-term in 30 years or so, they will almost
> certainly
> be highly sought after, therefore to pay a slight premium for one of these
> bikes over the price of a standard Bianchi is probably not a bad idea. I
> would however still recommend spending the same money on an equally rare 15
> or 20 year old bikes instead. They have likely finished most of their
> depreciation and will soon appreciate once again.
>
> Steven Maasland
> Moorestown, NJ
>
>
>

Two questions: what does "earned money" mean here? Increasing in value, but not keeping up with inflation (again)? Might as well keep it in a CD at a Bank.... Don't get me wrong, I like old cars too; I've owned dozens, sold some at a profit, sold more at a loss, enjoyed them all. I just wouldn't consider them to be great investments. Bikes are way easier to maintain, and don't deteriorate at anywhere near the rate that cars do just sitting there. With the right vintage bikes, I think we're talking more about "losing less money" (adjusted for inflation) over time, than if we had bought new $5500 Bianchis, that's all....

Second question: since we have determined in the past on this list that the useful life of these "throwaway" Aluminum frames is 3 - 5 years and they can fail regularly and catastrophically, how can we speculate on the value of them after that? Maybe the three that remain in unridden condition in 10 years really will be worth something!

Cheers,

Greg "steel is STILL real" Parker
A2 MI USA