In a message dated 2/11/03 9:59:31 AM Eastern Standard Time,
sbirmingham@mindspring.com writes:
> Subj: RE: [CR]Downward spiral of classic bike prices
> Date: 2/11/03 9:59:31 AM Eastern Standard Time
> From: <A HREF="mailto:sbirmingham@mindspring.com">sbirmingham@mindspring.com</A>
> To: <A HREF="mailto:classicrendezvous@bikelist.org">classicrendezvous@bikelist.org</A>
> Sent from the Internet
>
>
>
> This happens in every hobby, when the economy isn't so good,
> prices drop. Especialy for the expensive but not absolutely top
> of the line stuff. It's mostly because the number of interested people
> who can actually spend a given ammount of money gets smaller. When the
> economy improves, assuming there are still forums to promote a hobby, the
> buyers and prices will be back.
>
> This also means that lots of good stuff becomes available, and can often be
> had for
> very reasonable prices. As far as the promoting the hobby goes, Ebay for
> better or worse
> has had a profound efect on many if not all fringe hobbies(almost anything
> besides stamps, coins etc) Someone somewhere collects almost anything you
> can think of
> and now someone who might only find a couple items a year, and have no idea
> of pricing, can find several things every day. The pricing does get a
> little
> skewed towards the high side sometimes, but to get there two people must be
> willing to spend that much
>
> I collect lots of different things myself, and I've seen this in some
> hobbies especialy
> baseball cards as a cyclical adjustment. The number of dealers, and the
> prices rise,
> for about 7 years or so, then theres an "adjustment" prompted by a weak
> economy,
> baseball strike etc.
>
> The weak times are the best times to buy.
>
> Steve Birmingham
> Lowell, Ma
I'm a savaholic as well, and have seen this trend too. I tend to sell and accumulate (buy) on the higher end because that's the value of what I see. I compare these things which we behold to what are perceived benchmarks in the new arena. Those $600 Masis are a giveaway when compared to a Chinese junker we have on the floor of the shop that will be worth a third as much when the new color shock comes out or a new style-of-the-month rear suspension set-upget a write up a whippersnapper know-little influenced by the ink revenue in the ad adjoining the test report.
My older frames hanging from the ceiling and walls of the shops?? There are hundreds - some new, some used.... A stately and finely-made 10-to-30 year-old lugged beauty should go for as much or more than a year or two old or new tig-welded Serotta, Bruce Gordon, Eisentraut, Waterford........many of which we have or can get. But nooooooo, people too oft want what's new, what's current, what's trendy Can many of us feel the difference in this $1,500 Waterford here and a 30-year-old P-13? I certainly cannot, most things peripheral being equal or close. I like Dickie quite a bit and have respect for Ben and Albert and Richie as well, as for Bruce , well, I've known him a long time too. As for getting exactly what you want walking in to a shop? Absolutely, why bother looking around for something classic if time's short.
These swap meets are a serious wake-up call to me. Perfectly good stuff going for peanuts.
Lowering prices start sometimes with panicking dealers, too. A meager know-little employee tries to sell something he/she might not understand. Has difficulty, boss panics, needs to pay bills, lowers prices. Dealer demands lower prices, wants more sales-needs higher volume, demand on companies to produce better-perceived items at lower prices to give consumers 'more-for-the-money' next year. Quality and workmanship can become less important.
The core of those that demand to get back to the finer expression of the art go to the specialty builders like Tom, Dickie, and Richie , and others and pay higher prices because of the increased focus. 'On Purpose' machines like the Rivendell Atlantis spring up as an in-between option and marketing and cult following sell them to a limited audience. We sell those, but if I can fit people with something original, I do that first because I already have it and it's paid for, as long as it sewrves the customer and is as good in quality. Warranty for brands that are no longer around? Well, we and many shops have been around longer than many of the brands we carry, and longer than many of the shops that sold people the bikes and frames that are still around. We're here to help if there's an issue, after all, we and many finer shops are not swap meets, ebay, or flea markets. When Serotta was more of a vogue name here 10 years ago, the tig-welded frames were commanding way higher money than most any classic with original finish that we had hanging. We have a very neat first-year Serotta frame still unbuilt that Ben asked me to take off the shelves 18 years ago because it was 'not representative' of the direction they wanted to go.
To me, that made it more historical and today it's among my favorite Serottas.
I have been able to stay afloat in spite of not turning the older things over, as a wise MBA bizman woulda done. The degree from Hard Knox U didn't teach that fast enough. The things that were kept take along time to rise again, and have to command higher prices avantually because there was serious interest lost on the money that could have been garnered the first time.
We still sell biopace rings and there are many of us that get a distinct efficiance and performance bonus in certain applications. Why wopuld Shimano make them, then tell us later they were no good. They just wouldn't admit that they were best only in the middle and small.
Mountain bikes came along to help sagging roadbike sales 20 years ago and have been used off road in a small percentage of applications. These days the savvy industry is finally creating more practical bikes for comfort, commuting,and utility - so good followers should get a third and fourth bike to be able to ride oin many situations.
No scorn here, just observations from the trenches and pulpit of the shop as well as views from afield.
There are those to whom 'new' means so much. I have been tempered by the job here, observing the strife and trivialities over which people agonize - usually in the cosmetic details of their machines. (*) Our family has been attuned to accept and enjoy things that are more practical at times and to appreciate more. I'm the one that takes the top newspaper that is a bit ruffled or smudged. I know someone will enjoy the 'fresher' ones underneath. Our family enjoys helping the supermarket get rid of the bruised bananas, peaches, and apples. Sometimes they are marked down but that doesn't matter.If they stay too long, they get tossed out in landfill(arrgghh!!) instead of given to the starving and hungry, and there's more losses and in the big photo, costs will rise.
On the rare occassion we get a new vehicle, we seek the one with the dings and chips. For Heaven's sake, it's a car- it's gonna get dinged sooner rather than later. Bikes , too. 2,000 go out of these portals yearly, and have since I started in the 60's- If cash registers and workstands could talk!? I'm no analyst but have seen more people in my travels in real life situations here in these trenches in a year than the many a shrink or cubicle worker sees in a lifetime.
I'd have to say that the ones who worry the most about the smaller things have a life that I perceive to be more endowed with stress.
Going a bit into the stray here...But to do the Cliff's notesand wrapper, I see great value in our pastime and there is certainly very little false inflation like I saw with baseball cards, beer cans, Wheaties boxes, and Mopars (certain ones 10 years ago going for six figures).
I've had enough old cars and motorcycles to know that bicycles are way more satisfying to collect, ride, and admire. They have a far more practical side in terms of fitness, environmental friendliness, transportation, sport, and a keen connection to history. Besides, twelve of them fit neatly in the space of one old car and I don't need to worry about rodents (although I have a sad looking nitor 55 perforated plastic saddle that was used as a chew toy for rats years ago) battery tenders, insurance, titles, tags, taxes......
(*) I had to add this while i have your attention. I recently heard that the entire bicycle industry worldwide (and that's a helluva lotta bikes) is a (very) tiny fraction of the cosmetic industry in the US alone. Something like more uis spent in a day than on bicycles in a year. Might even be a few hours. There's one more comparison between bicycle advocacy v. Pentagon spending, but I'll do that on other forums. CR is not a political place.
Hey, I just noticed a customer looking at a full suspension mountain bike with disc brakes here in tha shop gotto go put on my make up.....and show some enthusiasm. At least I get to walk past that '78 Serotta, '81 Kellogg Ross Signature, '82 Trek Columbus (thanks , Wayne!!) '85 Bianchi Centanario with Celeste-leather-capped Silca pump and tyres (Now seriously, how can something that interesting NOT be part of this board?), a prewar Schwinn Superior straight-kicker, and a few others hanging majectically above that line of fat boingers.
Larry Black
Mt Airy , Md.