Points well taken, however (quoting one of my favorite lines) onotogeny does not become phylogeny.
A Confente, rare and desireable as it is, probably is an exception, but the fact that ONE campy derailleur sells for 325 bucks does not mean they are ALL worth that. The number of people willing to pay top dollar for collectable BIKES (vintage lightweights) is far smaller than the supply thereof. Ebay (and other online selling venues) let the seller find the ONE buyer willing to pay the top price for the item in question, and the auction mentality has some effect as well.
Having watched the market for Porsche parts for a long time, I know that hard parts (ring and pinion for a 1965 356C for example) became VERY expensive because of collector hoarding of spares. My own analysis of the market dynamic tells me that the hoard phenomenon occurs late in the collecting game for the commodity in question. Many of us here on the list have already got our stash together, and as Dennis points out it's really a shame that those new to the game have access to really interesting parts restricted based on cost. But also, that NOS SR derailleur in the box is INSTANTLY devalued as soon as you bolt it on a bike, and I think the best part about cycling is that we can USE the things we collect instead of just letting 'em hang on the wall.
It is my prediction that hoarding will occur (god knows I've got mine, wear parts especially) but there is still lots of good "user" stuff out there and I plan on trading and riding the heck out of my collection for some time to come. And, there are a few places out there (such as recycled cycles of Seattle) that specialize in used parts - they have ~30 or so derailleurs of the NR/SR class for sale right now! All useable but very nice. So as Chuck says, beat the bushes and don't just rely on Ebay for your parts supply.
</rant>
Mark "just did 22 miles along Agate Passage with the sun setting over the mountains" Petry
-----Original Message----- From: classicrendezvous-admin@bikelist.org [mailto:classicrendezvous-admin@bikelist.org]On Behalf Of Dennis Ryan Sent: Monday, June 18, 2001 6:43 PM To: monkey37@bluemarble.net Cc: Classicrendezvous@bikelist.org Subject: Re: [CR]Confente "Scam" ends
(Note: Contains bike content!)-- a few years ago I bolstered my collection of JRR Tolkien 1st US editions (built up over a quarter century) via eBay and some online used book search engines. I got some great bargains (that's all I can afford), but the scary thing is how the books I bought have all shot up tremendously in value in just a couple of years, and I'm priced out of the ones I don;t have but need. My favorite example is "Oliphaunt," a 1989 children's book (a board book in fact) -- I bought one for $9 about two years ago, and today they're between $125 and $150, if you can find one.
Part of it is the movie raising interest, but much more important was the internet in simultaneously (and explosively) broadening and depleting the market. What's going to happen when the whole world's online, not just the western digital elite such as we be? ;-) But seriously, think of the poor saps who'd love to bid on a Confente, have the money, too, but no Internet because they live in the unwired world. And plenty of people spend more on clothes than that bike. Once something's "discovered," there's no going back.
Sorry about the length but the eBay thing's just going to get worse. I never thought I'd see a $2000 derailleur or $55,000 Lord of the Rings set but here we are. God knows what will happen with bikes, but there may not be as nice a Confente up for sale to the general pub in a long, long time. Lots more people in the world will want what cyclists in Europe and the US have taken for granted. Look at the price for SR derailleurs and other Campy stuff. Affordable stuff is already disappearing. And that Simplex stuff's just scary. It'll happen to all collectibles with worldwide appeal. Glad I saved all my LPs! (they're in fantastic shape -- all in plastic. My retirement fund ;-) Dennis Ryan Louisville, KY
----Original Message Follows---- From: Brandon Ives <monkey37@bluemarble.net> To: Chuck Schmidt <chuckschmidt@earthlink.net> CC: classicrendezvous@bikelist.org, Philcycles@aol.com Subject: Re: [CR]Confente "Scam" ends Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2001 13:58:26 -0500 (EST)
OK let's think in terms of "masters" Confente as Van Gogh and Mr. Sachs as Eric Fischl or Henry Moore. Sure anybody can buy a MFA project or "limited" print or they can buy a Canonndale. We're talking about the top 0.1% of "artists." By those standards the Confente is cheap, but I don't want to see the people that have made 5th state Rembrandt print cost $2000+, make ANY Masi cost $10,000. I never want to see the name become more important than the item. Maybe it's the fact that I'm looking at another 50 years of collecting so my view is quite long. I'm scared for the future of "lightweight" collecting. enjoy, Brandon"monkeyman"Ives
"Nobody can do everything, but if everybody did something everything would get done." Gil Scott-Heron
On Mon, 18 Jun 2001, Chuck Schmidt wrote:
> Brandon Ives wrote:
> >
> > The market for bike parts is 100x larger than any of the "fine
> > arts" markets.
>
> Let's see... the number of art galleries vs. the number of bike shops
> dealing in vintage bikes and parts? Hummmmmm...
>
> Chuck Schmidt
>
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