Harvey Sachs wrote an interesting post last week, but I've lost it. He was pointing out that certain classic cars that used to be very sought after are not anymore, because the guys who liked them are beginning to shuffle off this mortal coil. So the market is fading.
I thought this would generate an interesting thread, but if it did, I missed it, so I thought I'd post something on the subject..
There may be some analog in that story, when it comes to the bikes we love..but I doubt it. Already there is a clear differentiation in the market between the bikes/frames/parts that are clearly and consistently collectable, and everything else. I doubt that will change. Also, rarity will always be a consideration. For instance, no matter how many years go by, an original Porsche Spyder rally car will always just get more and more pricey. Same for the legendary gull-wing Mercedes 190SL from the 1950s, or certain Ferrari rally cars: rarity, famous manufacturer, racing provenance. Hard to beat those, at any time.
I believe the same will be true for a clean, original Masi Special from the mid-60s. Ditto for a clean, original Gloria Garibaldina Extra from the 30s or 40s with all the original bits (or any other Gloria, for that matter). The aristocrats of the lightweight bikes will always be worth money, and sought after, even when we're all gone. A new generation of guys will be interested in them. Sure..some bikes will go begging, just like some cars go begging. And fashion will fluctuate. But if we buy quality *and* rarity, I doubt any of us will be disappointed, in a purely financial sense.
Harvey's point though was that he would collect to please himself and not worry about value. I must confess I give some thought to value..I prefer not to buy something and have it be worth what I pay only to me. So far, as I contemplate my modest stable, I have the feeling even 50 years from now, every bike would find a home for its value, without much trouble.
If I owned a bunch of french production bikes from the 70s it might be a different story... but even one of those, totally original and clean, will have some basic value. Value and collectability will fluctuate for more for one of those, though, than for a prime Masi Special, imho.
In the last 40 years, so far as I can tell, frames and full bikes from the best makers have held their original value very nicely, with rare exceptions..and this for bikes and parts no longer new..so, in that sense, they exceed original value on a routine basis.
As an example I've used before: in 1971, a fully-kitted-out Colnago Super (the one with the cool, short-lived, playing-card graphics package) from Berkeley Velo-Sport would set you back about $475 (depending on certain accessories and tires). That money today is worth over $2150 in inflation-adjusted dollars, and I expect a very clean '71 Super in all-original condition, if put on ebay with good pics, would go for that much, or likely more, in a prime size.
This is true for all the sought-after marques, and I rather doubt that will change. Rarity sells. Always has, always will, even if the market is very small.
But, I could be wrong.
Charles Andrews SoCal
******* As far as converting THIS society to solar, I think it's literally impossible. Even if political and economic barriers are ignored, there are not enough natural resources left to rebuild the existing infrastructure--to move everyone out of existing hot, dry cities (esp. Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc.) and house them elsewhere in high-density, low-energy structures.
America was built on the belief that fossil fuel would last forever. It was in our genes. We had no choice.
--Jay Hanson