I'm not necessarily saying I agree with what Don is saying, but foreign currencies are up against the weak dollar, and it does make parts cheaper for people overseas. So they can pay more in the dollar equivalent and it still seems cheap to them.
David Toppin dave@pelletizer.com http://www.pelletizer.com <see our complete, searchable inventory
The Pelletizer Group, Inc. 4 LaChance Street Gardner, MA 01440-2476
(978) 669-0060 (978) 669-0061 fax
-----Original Message----- From: classicrendezvous-bounces@bikelist.org [mailto:classicrendezvous-bounces@bikelist.org] On Behalf Of loudeeter@aol.com Sent: Wednesday, November 29, 2006 9:16 AM To: classicrendezvous@bikelist.org Subject: Re: [CR]Was: Maybe not actually an e-Bay scammer..Now: commenting on prices.
Geez Don, I wake up this morning to an economics class, this is painful. Not only that, but there's just a hint of politics thrown in. I don't think any of what you say has anything to do with prices of vintage bike parts, over and above the normal inflationary numbers. I think the increased price for bike parts is simple supply and demand, with the supply side shrinking and the demand side increasing as us old farts start making some real money in our 50s and 60s--when most people hit their peak income level. You may have an argument for pricing of the latest off-topic bike stuff, but not for vintage parts. Lou Deeter, Orlando FL
-----Original Message----- From: dcwilson3@yahoo.com To: classicrendezvous@bikelist.org Sent: Wed, 29 Nov 2006 8:41 AM Subject: Re: [CR]Was: Maybe not actually an e-Bay scammer..Now: commenting on prices.
Here's my opinion regarding collectible bike and parts prices spiking again recently: demand destruction in USA, emergency $1 trillion dollar Federal Reserve currency printing last summer, stagflationary central bank policy for USA.
USA Demand Destruction: the USA is being put on a severe economic diet, while several other major regional economies are being grown rapidly. The rightness or wrongness of it can get rather political, so I'll skip that. Demand destruction is a euphemism for an economic strategy aimed at reducing America's share of basic resource consumption by about 25% over 5-10 years, so those basic resources can be shifted to rapidly industrializing economies with low wage rates and rock bottom social cost structures like China, India, etc. Why practice this rather Marxian strategy (to each according to his needs, from each according to his abilities)? Because China, India, etc., need vastly more oil, natural gas, cement, lumber, steel, etc., as they grow at between 9-15% per year. We on the other hand, with our relatively high standard of living and consumption can afford less of both, at least the central bankers think so. Reducing USA consumption of these basic resources and shifting their consumption to the places just mentioned helps avoid a global structural inflation that might overthrow the current global central bank system and plunge the world into economic chaos--at least that's what self-interested supporters of the current central banking system seem to think.
The goal of USA demand destruction can be achieved one of three ways:
1) deflation--shrinking the money supply sharply, reducing credit supply sharply and causing a price deflation and declining consumption stemming from too little buying power;
2) inflation--increasing the money supply sharply so as to cause a price inflation and a decline in consumption from too many dollars with too little buying power; or
3) stagflation--raising money supply to inflate price and raising interest rates to strangle job/wage growth aimed at investing those additional dollars with the result being an inflated prices and money with less buying power and less employment expansion and so less consumption.
Deflation is scary, because once prices drop sharply, depression sets in, unemployment shoots up, angry populism rises and the only way out for the supporters of the central bank system is usually some combination of money supply expansion, massive infrastructure expansion, tax cutting, and war driven job creation stimulus--all things which can destabilize central banking control through unforeseen consequences.
Inflation is scary, too, because if unforeseen consequences propell the system into hyperinflation, then dollars are worthless, and everyone ceases supporting the central bank and the supporters of the central bank lose control of the gravy train; that is, being able to print one's own money and charge government and people for using it.
Stagflation is the least scary for advocates of the central banking system, because its greater complexity of manipulation allows more dexterity and subtlety of coercion in shrinking an economy and its standard of living. And more ways to hide while doing it.
For about two years now the Fed (the American head of the central banking hydra) has apparently been following a Stagflation strategy to move the USA incrementally at first, but with increasing speed down the path of demand destruction. The policy of increasing money supply, cutting taxes and increasing interest rates has increased real inflation (nominal inflation has not increased much because they have excluded many of the inflating items from the index) and stagnated capital investment, job growth with high pay, and worker productivity. Foreign made goods are getting more expensive (as prices rise on Accords and Civics we increasingly have to choose Civics or a Fit). Domestic made goods are getting ever fewer (Ford and GM teeter over bankruptcy and appear to be choosing to become Chinese companies after bankruptcy, merger, or both).
$1 Trillion Federal Reserve Emergency Print Run Last Summer: The Fed recently quit counting M3 and then had an emergency currency printing of a trillion dollars. That's a big increase in money supply with no sudden corresponding increase in domestic goods and services produced by American workers; that spells price inflation whereever the new dollars went. Initially, the new dollars appparently were mostly shoveled out the Fed door by the President's Plunge Protection Team, which meant it probably went two places: 1) to service gov. IOUs to countries like China; and 2) to major investment and commercial banking players, which meant it was then invested mostly in derivatives, which meant it mostly floated stock prices up at home and abroad. Either way the new money wound up in very few hands and much of it overseas without an increase of domestic goods production. How do you spell: Stagflation?
So other countries' economies are booming and USA is sinking increasingly into stagflation in order to avoid a global structural inflation (aren't we being good chaps?) caused by spiking global demand for basic resources, which are themselves relatively inelastic in supply in the short and mid term, given the rapid growth rates in places like China.
The result of all this is that foreign collectors have more and more money to spend and their money has more and more buying power, while we have dollars with less and less buying power, declining real wages, and what money we do have increasingly is sponged away by our purchases of foreign made goods by foreign owned firms staffed by foreign managers and workers.
So: bike prices appear to us to be sky rocketing, while for overseas collectors, the prices paid are probably not considered outrageous at all. They are experiencing the kind of relative prospertity that Americans once experienced vis a vis Europeans in the first three quarters of the 20th Century. Recall, we were once oversexed, overpaid and over there, as the British used to say. Today, we need Viagra, aren't paid well, have increasingly lousy benefits, and yet increasingly have to be "over there" in an elaborate foreign basing system in central Asia, the Middle East, Africa and South America just to keep from losing our oil backed central banking system, which is itself seeking to lower our standard of living via stagflation induced demand destruction. What a deal?
It was more fun being prosperous, I suppose, but an old rule holds still.
If you have more money than the other guy, buy his stuff at a right price and hold it till there's a profit to be made. If he has more money than you, sell him everything he'll buy. Over time it makes the world go round...if you don't guess wrong.
You don't hear Hilary Stone in the UK complaining about not being able to afford the high prices certain collectors from certain countries can. He's too busy selling everything he has and can find to them.
Don Wilson
Los Olivos, CA USA
> Larry wrote:
>
>
>
> << Whether the seller is legit or not, who is foolish enough
>
> to pay the prices listed? $689 (or even $389!) for a pair of
>
> hubs that generally go for about $225
>
> NOS,NIB (less than $125 in excellent used cond.) is LUDRICROUS!!!!
>
> JEEEZ! I guess I should start charging more....NOT!!
> >>
>
>
>
> You know.... Sometimes I also cough and guffaw when I see some of
>
> the prices asked in vintage stuff sales/auctions...
>
> But I just caution everyone to be very careful in doing that.
>
> ?
>
> The time is rapidly approaching when those bikes or parts
>
> we think are no-big-deal suddenly will approach "unobtanium" status
>
> and what do you know, they are all of a sudden more expensive than
>
> we ever dreamed.
>
>
>
> There are collectors and aficionados in other countries in
>
> particular who already are vastly more knowledgeable and
>
> sophisticated in their hobbies than we are here in the states and the
> UK.
>
>
>
> The good old fellows who think rare and irreplaceable bits and
>
> pieces ought to just be swapped about with jovial generosity and
>
> if money changes hands, it ought to be at 1945 prices... well,
>
> let's just say they are in sweet delusion.
>
>
>
> So I don't know if Mario Girasa has 100 pair of high flange hubs
>
> or not, but I am willing to let him try to fetch the price he wants...
>
> If their not worth that amount, he will find out soon enough. If
>
> they do sell in that monetary region, some of us will have to eat our
> hats!
>
>
>
>
>
> Dale Brown
> Greensboro, North Carolina USA
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: curmudgeon1957@yahoo.com
> To: classicrendezvous@bikelist.org
> Sent: Wed, 29 Nov 2006 12:16 AM
> Subject: [CR]e-Bay scammer
>
> Whether the seller is legit or not, who is foolish enough to pay the
> prices listed? $689 (or even $389!) for a pair of hubs that generally
> go for about $225 NOS,NIB (less than $125 in excellent used cond.) is
> LUDRICROUS!!!!
> JEEEZ! I guess I should start charging more....NOT!!
>
> Larry Myers, Portland, Oregon, USA
> curmudgeon1957@yahoo.com
> PS- anybody need a NOS NR R. Derailleur?
> BUY-IT-NOW; only $900!
>
>
> ---------------------------------
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