Hi, John. No I didn't think you were making the market, but I did figure the prices you offered reflected your assessment of where the market is, which is evidently higher than a few years ago. Now I figured you were going to resell the parts, presumably after matching some "orphans" to mates you already had, since after all you are in the business of buying and reselling parts. And I figured you weren't planning to lose money, and so your offer must be a little below your estimate of "retail" price. Now if this is for a bike of your own, maybe you don't need to turn a profit, but on the other hand, if one of the leading sellers of this sort of thing can't just take them out of inventory for his own project, then that is a pretty good indication that these parts are becoming somewat rare.
Maybe this is an indication that most caches of NOS parts have already been discovered and depleted, and that NOS parts are going to be increasingly difficult and expensive to obtain. That's not a surprising conclusion considering that all this stuff is now at least 20 years old and some a lot older. Plus guys like yourself, Mike Kone, BC, Sheldon and in the past Bill Ward have been actively seeking out, buying and reselling this stuff for the better part of 10 years now. So maybe it's now reached the point where most of the inventories "left over" in distributor warehouses, bike shop parts bins and shutdown shops from the days when these were being made have now been depleted and most remaining inventories are now in the hands of collectors who place a higher value on this stuff. If so, then we can expect to pay a lot more than a few years ago. And you're right, the fact you didn't get many takers to your offers indicates that the offered prices were at or below the market.
Now I think most of this applies specifically to NOS parts, and perhaps is not really applicable to used bits, even ones in excellent condition. I don't think I'm personally going to reap some windfall profit here, as most of my personal hoard is not NOS. I've never really been an enthuiastic buyer of NOS stufff for the simple reason that the minute you mount it, it isn't NOS any more, whereas excellent used is still excellent used after a couple of months of use. Now I have bought a fair amount of NOS parts when I could get them at only a modest premium over the cost of excellent used stuff. That used to happen fairly often, but perhaps it is now a thing of the past.
Regards,
Jerry Moos Big Spring, TX
John Barron <jb@velostuf.com> wrote: Jerry-
God bless you, but you're giving me way too much credit! Actually, what's going on here is *simply* that I am trying to buy some parts to build up a bike. I don't think that I'd get any response if I just said, "Wanted to Buy" because there is sufficient confusion about what some things are worth- potential sellers might be reluctant to set a selling price. So, in basic "open outcry" style, I shout out an bid to buy. If someone sells me a part at that price, then, that's where the market's at.
In this case, I got one response for one headset. ONE RESPONSE. ( I bought it) So, among all of the CR list members, there is only one NOS Campy headset that CR members are willing to sell at that price. What does that tell you about this group's feeling about what these are worth?? Please, it's *not* me who is establishing the value on these!!!
For those folks out there who think that guys like me are making the market, you are flat wrong. It's the market that's making the market. I could have made an offer to buy 10 Campy headsets for $200 each. It wouldn't have mattered. I only got one response for one headset.
By the way, I'll pay $55 for a perfect NOS Campy BSC Super Record headset top nut.
So, what am I supposed to think when aggressive offers to buy are met with virtual silence? If people aren't willing to sell for my bid price, then maybe those parts are worth at least that much? (at least at this point in time).
John Barron
Minneapolis
jb@velostuf.com
Date: Thu, 7 Dec 2006 14:24:47 -0800 (PST)
From: Jerome & Elizabeth Moos
To: Tam Pham , John Barron
Cc: classicrendezvous@bikelist.org
Cc: appraisalresourcegroup@msn.com
Subject: Re: [CR]re: Suprising ending to Cinelli Pista frameset auction
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Well, I was surprised by the prices John was offering a couple of days ago for certain NOS bits. And since I assume John doesn't intend to lose money by reselling those bits, he obviously thinks there has been a change in the market such that classic bikes and parts will now routinely command prices more in line with other collectable. I guess I should hope he is right, since it would increase the value of my rather extensive hoard. But I think I feel more concerned that I'll have to pay more for future purchases.
Regards,
Jerry Moos
Big Spring, TX