Nick; I will agree that the pricing has slipped a bit, but not all that badly. Most of my last few rounds of auctions have done as expected, but the bidding process for buyers has changed completely. It seems most serious bidders wait and bid at the last minute, and I'm sure this has an impact on pricing. I watched Hilary Stone's auctions this past week and although most of what he listed sold, many items were not even bid on until the last 24 hours.
Housing prices skyrocketed at such a fast pace the bubble did burst in many areas, but considering many that in many parts of the country pricing of property double and tripled original value, the bubble had to burst sooner or later. Cycling items pricing didn't inflate nearly as much in recent years, but the costs of shipping as you mention is having a huge impact. For me to ship a one pound package to Canada via Priority Mail is now about $20, and a full bike from Britain is about $350-$400.
Just my perspective.
Peter Naiman Milwaukee, WI US of A
Nick March <nicbordeaux@yahoo.fr> wrote: Ebay prices on a load of items are dropping, but not evenly throughout the world. The big decline is in 70's Randonneurs of the more famed brands and their components : too many turning up and out of barns. Plus, the low doll ar and rising shipping costs, whatever the cause, is making it not worth my bother to sell on ebay at all except for the occasional 30 buck one-off, j ust for fun.
However, on ebay.fr, Herse prices are going through the roof. They are fina lly waking up here to the fact that there is a bike building heritage, not just famous racers. Unfortunately, most of the Herses have migrated. A case of the early bird getting the worms. We too have quite a few randonneur fa natics who have influenced thinking/spending. They are on the way out, and people are finally collecting French racing bikes, in France. 1935 to 1970 mainly, the emphasis on 50's gear.
Furthermore, under the influence (both sides of the Atlantic) of "cyclotour ing apostles and Ayatolahs" randonneurs have been grossly overpriced compar ed to racing machines. Unfortuntely, on the racing scene the high prices ha ve been made (here we meet the "racing ayatollahs) by a few "famed" brands of Italian manufacture, or Italian sounding. Now that supply is dwindling t o a trickle on these "holy grail" machines, much more diverse stuff is hitt ing the market as it becomes viable to sell it: increased supply leads to l ower prices. There are one whole load of racing bike brands out there, and whilst these mean "affordable" classics, the influx of so many mchines mean s a drop in the price of the less "holy" but well known bikes that had been living in the shadows of the sacred cows.
When market is blodthirsty for something, associated or similar products o f lesser quality rise in price as the demand screams for supply. When that demand drops, the "placebo" supply prices drop through the floor.
So what am I geting at ? How would I know ? Probably that the market has be en overfed, too much ruthless dealing has been done, too many "phonies" hav e been sold, and people have lost interest/confidence. Basically, the bubbl e is bursting, as bubbles tend to, on the overpriced stuff.
As to a forward slip in the collectability time frame, obviously. Nothing n ew under the sun.
Actualy, I do know what point I'm making: collect what you want, irrespecti ve of the investment value. If you are looking for investment, treasury bon ds to oil futures cover your needs. But as you can't ride them, you need bi kes too. Investing in collectibles is not a good idea unless you are consta ntly on the ball, and have knowledge of how collectibles markets and prices rise and fall.
Nick March, Agen, 47000, Lot et Garonne, France.
ps: I will pay up to 150 bucks for a Masi or a Herse. Sell whilst there is still opportunity. Next week I pay 100 bucks.=0A=0A________________________