From my conversations with builders, they just don't see any use in asking people to wait 5 or more years for a bike. If the customers are active riders, then they need a bike sooner. Most racers will have retired from racing before they get the new bike! If the customers are collectors, they may well have moved to other fields of interest when they get to the front of the line. So in effect, an order for a bike that is 5 years out really is not an order, as the customer is likely to decide that they no longer want the bike when their time comes. I think the builders recognize this, and prefer not to take these "non-orders".
For a builder, it is a nice situation. It's like the 2-year subscriptions to Bicycle Quarterly - they allow me to concentrate on putting together a magazine, and not worry about renewals as much. For the builders, if anything, there will be an increase in production - these builders don't have to market any longer, they can just concentrate on making bikes.
This situation does provide an opening for new and less-known builders, and that is a good thing, too. It is very encouraging that a craft that was considered dying just a few years ago, now faces a situation where supply cannot meet demand. The appreciation of fine craftsmanship and classic bikes (old and new) has increased tremendously, thanks to this list, the Cirque, the Handmade Show and other venues.
Of course, this makes it harder for riders who need a great bike. They need to look for the new builders, but of course, it is hard to figure out who is truly great and who just has flashy paint. Bicycle Quarterly's tests are intended to help making that decision, but of course, once a bike gets a good review in the magazine, the wait list immediately increases. (When we tested Peter Weigle's bike, the wait list was less than 6 months, and I hear Tony Pereira now is booked for over a year, too.)
One other aspect is that most of the builders who are booked (with the exception of Richard Sachs) are constructeurs of fully integrated bikes, which are relatively new to this market. As more and more non-racing riders want a bike that is optimized for their type of riding, these builders cannot meet the demand. If you just want a very nice racing bike, you have plenty of builders who can deliver a frame in a relatively short time frame.
Hopefully, as more builders enter the craft, there will be more supply, and wait lists will get back to a more manageable time frame of 6-8 months.
Jan Heine
Editor
Bicycle Quarterly
140 Lakeside Ave #C
Seattle WA 98122
http://www.bikequarterly.com