Since there are on-topic carbon bikes from the '70s, I suspect there are collectors out there with examples that could tell us. My understanding is that the epoxy matrix has a reasonable lifetime. They can be somewhat more fragile, and the abuse I've put my fleet through over the years might be too much for carbon. For example, every bike I own fell 6 feet when my rack failed. That was rather embarrassing, but only resulted in some chipped paint.
As a cyclists and one-time bike shop employee, I have always regretted the large number of bikes bikes are ridden only a few times and then stored. Eric Keller Boalsburg, PA
On Mon, Aug 10, 2009 at 3:14 PM, Jan Heine<heine94@earthlink.net> wrote:
> At 8:58 AM -0700 8/10/09, Kurt Sperry wrote:
>
>> I suspect there will be a goodly number of today's plastic framed
>> bikes still in good condition in 50 years time given the fact that
>
> many bikes are purchased as an impulse buy
>
> No doubt about unused bikes always being available, but will they be as
> useable as the classic steel bikes we love?
>
> Plastic ages. I recently gave my 1970s Playmobil figures to my children. 35
> years on, the plastic has become brittle, and some of the figures (white
> ones especially) break when you put the tools in their hands. (They were
> much stronger when new.)
>
> So it may be hard to ride a 50-year-old carbon bike without breaking it.
>
> Of course, there are plastics that resist aging and UV very well, but I have
> little confidence in the bike industry to get that aspect right. After all,
> they advertise performance, not longevity.
>
> (Many car makers can't even get their dashboards to withstand a few decades
> of sunlight. Let's hope Boeing gets it right on their new carbon-fiber 787
> airplane. First indications are not good on that one, either.)
>
> Jan Heine
> Editor
> Bicycle Quarterly
> 140 Lakeside Ave #C
> Seattle WA 98122
> http://www.vintagebicyclepress.com