[CR] ebay colnago

(Example: Framebuilders:Mario Confente)

To: <classicrendezvous@bikelist.org>
From: <stephen.p.kinne@hsbcpb.com>
Date: Sat, 2 Jan 2010 18:45:41 -0500
Subject: [CR] ebay colnago


I'm with Charles and Steve on this one.

Whether we want to admit to it or not, vintage lightweights are (relatively) cheap compared to other collectible classes. If you don't think so, look into rare clocks, art, furniture or check out the Barrett Jackson car auction this weekend on SPEED. It's hard for folks to NOT spend $100,000 for the really good stuff. Or millions. $7,100 won't buy a new car, is not a lot of money for an original, unmolested 60's Colnago, another primo example of which one is unlikely to even see again in their lifetime much less have another opportunity to bid on (the brakes would be an easy fix, even I have a pair of NOS Universal 68's some where in my basement).

Economic downturns typically do not dramatically affect the value of rarest of the rare and ORIGINAL unmolested examples because the most serious collectors will always acquire the best examples they can find and will have the resources and have patience to do so. That is typically fewer than 5% or 10% of available examples (think "survivor" car or that '68 Colnago). Unmolested vintage lightweights are a tuff find because many of them were raced, updated, repainted and on and on and on. Really serious collectors don't bother with items that have been altered because they don't have to. They square off with each other over the top decile and leave the 90% to 95% to the masses, all prices get pulled along for the upswing in the top 5% of the stuff but when the bottom falls out the bid falls by far the most for the altered stuff because the masses have to make the choice between speculating and eating. Myself, I like to eat. For the Colnago to get bid to $7,100, there had to be at least TWO collectors squaring off that thought it was worth $7,000. The Japanese vacuum up a lot of good bikes but are able to so because they are big savers, that's not their fault. It's cultural. When you borrow to spend as many folks in this country did, you are just borrowing from future consumption and postponing the sacrifice 'til tomorrow. It always amuses me how many folks fall into the trap of leasing a new car every 3 years, eating $10,000 to $15,000 in payments and depreciation and then turning the car back in with 75% of its useful life remaining. That's TWO ultra-rare Colnago's. Maybe the winning bidder drives a spartan but reliable 12-year old Japanese car and he saved the car payments he no longer had to make for the last 7 plus years to get that special bike. That's what I'd do (I'm not a bidder). As Steve said, it's about priorities.

I believe that John may have misspoken about the recent economic downturn not affecting the very wealthy, because their equity holdings and real estate fell right along with every one else (and the markets) unless they were fortunate enough to have been invested on some other planet. They may still be wealthy only because they entered the downturn with more, not because they have some mythical special deal. Many created their wealth through brains and hard work, some were lucky, some inherited it, a few may have used more nefarious means. $7,100 might still look (relatively) cheap to them.

Or it could have been all the money in the world to a serious collector pinching his pennies to get that one special Colnago.

Steve Kinne NY, USA

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