Hi All,
I don't know if theorizing about value is OT. But, I don't agree that bike collectors are analogous to stamp or coin collectors. To me, "NOS" just means that the part has not be "used." When it comes to bike collecting, "used" has a wide range of meaning, as does the term "patina." Both can (theoretically) equate to "decrepit." I guess some would argue; but, in my opinion, a 1965 custom Masi that had been left outdoors and rusted throughout would be worth less than the same bike that had been cared for or one that had been restored faithfully (or even not). In other words, worth is (in my mind) inherently related to function. That is, unless the bike is bought for purely aesthetic or display purposes. "Patina" in the case of a bike (imo) involves the qualities attained from wear and use. And, because things naturally wear out or are used up, they need to be replaced. If I need to replace ball bearings, I'd prefer new ones. If I have a period Campy hub, then I'd prefer NOS to used... and would expect to pay a premium. If the bike is primarily wall hanger, then it's not worth the extra expense.
Stamps, on the other hand, are never "used" by stamp collectors. Rare stamps are never put on envelopes; rare coins are only spent by accident or ignorance. Anyway, I also think that this entire discussion is generational. I've only recently gotten to a point in my life where I can afford to buy the bike or equipment that I want. However, I'm not alone. Therefore, the price of stuff is going up. Ebay and other auctions allow more people to bid, and the rarity of the items force the price higher --regardless of perceived worth. Maybe it'd be fair to tie price to inflation. But, then rarity must be taken into account. I do wonder when I see a $17,000 price tag on a bike whether buyers will be willing to pay that in 30 years, when it wouldn't have been part of or a desire of their youth. Current frame builders are rightfully asking in the thousands, and I wonder if their work will appreciate for the same reasons in the same time.
So, I guess, for investment purposes, it'd make more sense to buy a New bike by a superior builder. Or, better yet, buy one for your child (if he or she likes to ride) :).
Cheers
Steve James
Bronx, NY USA