I have 11 bikes that date from earlier than 1954, the year I was born.
My collecting philosophy has become: rare (or relatively rare) stuff of quality that strikes me as under-appreciated, stuff that is worth preserving even if it does fail to hold or appreciate in value.
Michael Lebron NYC
----------
>From: Jay Van De Velde <jaysportif@yahoo.com>
>To: classicrendezvous@bikelist.org
>Subject: Re: [CR]are some of us nuts?
>Date: Mon, Sep 20, 2004, 12:25 AM
>
>After reading the WSJ article Harvey cited on Friday ( Thanks again Harvey)
>I had to chuckle at some of the "Buy,Hold, Sell" recommendations the
>article's author has made. C'mon; buy an American Motors AMX or an Olds
>Vista Cruiser ( a station wagon, forcryinoutloud) and sell your Aston
>Martin DB6, Duesy J or Ferrari Daytona? That's like saying "buy a Sears Ted
>Williams (No offense Harvey) and sell your Cinelli SC. Experiencing
>stratospheric run ups in prices recently are '60s-early '70s muscle cars,
>and what I think are their bike equivalents, the late '60s -early '70s
>Italian road bikes from the Big 5 (Cinelli, Colnago, DeRosa, Pogliaghi,
>Masi). As pointed out before by others, the 40+ demographic is pursuing
>these items they lusted after but couldn't afford in their youth (which
>also describes me). With the muscle cars there's probably going to be a
>burst bubble similar to the late '80s bubble regarding European sports cars
>( recall those $1M Daytonas, now around $125K ) but as
> long as you didn't buy your Daytona in the few years of that
>hyper-frenzied market, you're still doing OK, holding a valuable and highly
>desirable car. With bikes, the same lessons apply. Don't spend stupid money
>for that early Masi, but don't worry if you had to spend a bit more than
>you wished to get the right bike. The classic bikes now will be classic
>bikes in the future. I also think there's too much concern and
>hand-wringing regarding the next generation of collectors. There will
>always be cyclists and collectors who will be drawn to bikes preceding the
>era of their youth, just as there are and will continue to be car
>enthusiasts who appreciate fine automobiles built decades before they were
>born. I spent a wonderful day today wandering among some beautiful cars at
>a local Concours D'Elegance in Palos Verdes. Lots of Ferraris, Porsches,
>'Vettes, European and American classics. The 2 cars I was most drawn to
>were a prewar 4 1/2 liter racing Bentley and an original condition
> 1928 Auburn Speedster, both built WAY before I was born. I will venture to
>guess that many of us who will attend Velo Rendezvous 04 in a few weeks
>will be drawn to bikes on display built before the halcyon days of our
>youth, or even to bikes built well before we were even born.
>Jay Van De Velde
>Seal Beach, CA
>
>
>"C. Andrews" <chasds@mindspring.com> wrote: Harvey Sachs wrote an
>interesting post last week, but I've
>lost it. He was pointing out that certain classic cars that
>used to be very sought after are not anymore, because the
>guys who liked them are beginning to shuffle off this mortal
>coil. So the market is fading.
>
>I thought this would generate an interesting thread, but if
>it did, I missed it, so I thought I'd post something on the
>subject..
>
>There may be some analog in that story, when it comes to the
>bikes we love..but I doubt it. Already there is a clear
>differentiation in the market between the bikes/frames/parts
>that are clearly and consistently collectable, and
>everything else. I doubt that will change. Also, rarity
>will always be a consideration. For instance, no matter how
>many years go by, an original Porsche Spyder rally car will
>always just get more and more pricey. Same for the
>legendary gull-wing Mercedes 190SL from the 1950s, or
>certain Ferrari rally cars: rarity, famous manufacturer,
>racing provenance. Hard to beat those, at any time.
>
>I believe the same will be true for a clean, original Masi
>Special from the mid-60s. Ditto for a clean, original
>Gloria Garibaldina Extra from the 30s or 40s with all the
>original bits (or any other Gloria, for that matter). The
>aristocrats of the lightweight bikes will always be worth
>money, and sought after, even when we're all gone. A new
>generation of guys will be interested in them. Sure..some
>bikes will go begging, just like some cars go begging. And
>fashion will fluctuate. But if we buy quality *and*
>rarity, I doubt any of us will be disappointed, in a purely
>financial sense.
>
>Harvey's point though was that he would collect to please
>himself and not worry about value. I must confess I give
>some thought to value..I prefer not to buy something and
>have it be worth what I pay only to me. So far, as I
>contemplate my modest stable, I have the feeling even 50
>years from now, every bike would find a home for its value,
>without much trouble.
>
>If I owned a bunch of french production bikes from the 70s
>it might be a different story... but even one of those,
>totally original and clean, will have some basic value.
>Value and collectability will fluctuate for more for one of
>those, though, than for a prime Masi Special, imho.
>
>In the last 40 years, so far as I can tell, frames and full
>bikes from the best makers have held their original value
>very nicely, with rare exceptions..and this for bikes and
>parts no longer new..so, in that sense, they exceed original
>value on a routine basis.
>
>As an example I've used before: in 1971, a fully-kitted-out
>Colnago Super (the one with the cool, short-lived,
>playing-card graphics package) from Berkeley Velo-Sport
>would set you back about $475 (depending on certain
>accessories and tires). That money today is worth over
>$2150 in inflation-adjusted dollars, and I expect a very
>clean '71 Super in all-original condition, if put on ebay
>with good pics, would go for that much, or likely more, in a
>prime size.
>
>This is true for all the sought-after marques, and I rather
>doubt that will change. Rarity sells. Always has, always
>will, even if the market is very small.
>
>But, I could be wrong.
>
>Charles Andrews
>SoCal
>
>*******
>As far as converting THIS society to solar,
>I think it's literally impossible. Even if political
>and economic barriers are ignored, there are
>not enough natural resources left to rebuild
>the existing infrastructure--to move everyone
>out of existing hot, dry cities (esp. Los Angeles,
>San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc.)
>and house them elsewhere in high-density,
>low-energy structures.
>
>America was built on the belief that fossil
>fuel would last forever. It was
>in our genes. We had no choice.
>
>--Jay Hanson
>
>
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