Hi CR folks,
Yes the price guide update I'm supposed to write is on the slow track - especially with time I'm putting into Rene Herse Bicycles Inc.
The big stumbling block to the price guide is the variability in the market. For the same reason folks want a price guide, it is also extremely difficult to develop. In a sense, average (or mean) price is easy to come up with, but the stinker is wrapping my brain around capturing price variability. The market for vintage road bikes in general is extremely thin. It isn't like trying to place a value on an excellent Leica M3 single stroke, or a MCintosh MC240 amplifier. Some of those collectibles change hands multiple times in a day - how many of the Peugeots like the one in question change hands? - and how many of the exact same vintage with the cool plastic stuff yet with the alloy rail saddle and the mod 63 crank? And in that size? I bet there are perhaps NO close comps!
The kicker is if a bike has something slightly cool that captures the imagination of only two folks on ebay, then for less than the cost of adding a bunch of options to a mid-line BMW automobile someone can pay a seemingly crazy sum for a particular bike.
My latest thoughts are to come up with "gut" what it should typically sell for prices, and then rate particular bikes with the relative probablilty that the bike might sell for much more.
I have worked on some price-value-templates, and it gets mighty ugly pretty fast. At some point I might bite into the project again (I had played with it only a couple of weeks ago), but to do it right is no picnic.
Mike Kone in Boulder CO
> I gather many feel that the price lately paid for a PX-10 on eBay was excessive.
\r?\n> Perhaps it was.
\r?\n> But, in the absence of a current price guide, how is one to know what the "right
\r?\n> price" for a vintage bike really is?
\r?\n> The topic of a current price guide for vintage bikes generally is not well
\r?\n> received on CR-but many who decry the price guide idea are quick to find fault
\r?\n> with some poor soul who has "paid too much".
\r?\n> Most times on CR inquiries about price of bikes and components are held in
\r?\n> contempt-until a high price is reached-then comments abound-almost always
\r?\n> derogatory ones. It would seem that one can't have it both ways. If the rules
\r?\n> or convention prohibit such inquires on CR that's fine-but there should be
\r?\n> somewhere to find such information. Some info is present on eBay itself, but
\r?\n> it's too limited to be really useful.
\r?\n> I think such a vintage bike price guide is badly needed-almost every other form
\r?\n> of collectible has a current price guide.
\r?\n> Some collectibles have several.
\r?\n> George Hollenberg MD
\r?\n> Westport, CT, USA
\r?\n>
\r?\n>
\r?\n> George Hollenberg MD
\r?\n> CT, USA